Does Crime Really Increase After a Natural Disaster?

In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, officials painted a shocking picture of rampant crime and lawlessness throughout New Orleans.

“We have individuals who are getting raped; we have individuals who are getting beaten,” the city’s then-Police Chief Eddie Compass said on September 1, 2005. A few days later, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin told Oprah Winfrey something similar, describing how evacuees had been “watching dead bodies, watching hooligans killing people, raping people.” Media outlets provided breathless accounts of roving gangs, mass looting and brazen violence, describing a city that was sliding into chaos. 

In the weeks that followed, however, many of those initial claims were shown to be exaggerated or overblown. Many—like the discovery of dozens of dead bodies inside a freezer in the city’s convention center and gunmen firing shots at rescue helicopters—turned out to be total falsehoods, likely fueled by rumors and fear. 

Yet Hurricane Katrina reinforced a powerful narrative: that natural disasters unleash an inevitable wave of criminal behavior. The reality, experts say, is much more complicated.

The relationship between crime and natural disasters has long puzzled sociologists, criminologists and emergency managers. 

At first glance, catastrophic events seem like they would create conditions that are ripe for lawbreaking: strained public resources, damaged infrastructure, disrupted policing and destabilized social order. Some individuals might turn to crime out of necessity or desperation, while others might simply exploit the temporary lack of oversight.

Natural disasters, especially those that involve prolonged power outages, can sometimes lead people to commit “survival-type crimes” such as trespassing, breaking and entering and looting, says Gina Warren, a professor at the University of Houston Law Center whose recent research focuses on the failure of energy delivery systems during natural disasters.

“These crimes are facilitated by the lack of streetlights, home lighting and security measures and a strain on law enforcement and emergency services,” she tells A&E Crime + Investigation.

Meanwhile, disasters can also cause economic hardships like loss of income and property damage, which may prompt some people to turn to theft or fraud, Warren says. Catastrophes—and the often-long recovery process—may also lead to psychological distress, she adds, which can result in an uptick in crimes like domestic violence.

However, in many cases, disasters tend to bring out the best in people, according to Jeff Wenninger, a retired Los Angeles Police Department lieutenant and the founder and chief executive officer of Law Enforcement Consultants. 

During his time on the force in Los Angeles, he responded to various disasters, including earthquakes and wildfires. “I’ve watched residents form lines to move debris, share generators, cook for first responders and check on strangers,” he tells A&E Crime + Investigation. “The vast majority [of people] don’t roam the streets committing crimes. They act as neighbors.”

Longer term, once communities move on to recovery and rebuilding, crimes like contractor fraud, identity theft and scams tend to become more prevalent. That pattern, Wenninger says, doesn’t result from “people turning bad.” Rather, he explains, it stems from prolonged strain, housing instability and predatory actors entering recovery zones.

Media coverage adds yet another layer of complexity. Journalists have the potential to either “stabilize or inflame” a community, Wenninger says. When they verify facts, debunk rumors and give practical advice—things like where to get water or how to avoid scams—they can help reduce fear and uncertainty. 

But when the press amplifies unverified claims or uses only the most dramatic photos and videos, he says, they can leave the public with a distorted picture of what’s happening on the ground. Even when specific claims are later disproven, as with Hurricane Katrina, the general narrative of increased criminal activity often persists.

So far, research on the link between crime and natural disasters has been fairly limited—and the few studies that have been carried out have produced mixed findings. 

One 2011 study, which focused on Houston, found that Hurricane Katrina did not have any apparent impact on crime in the city. However, Hurricane Rita led to a short-term increase in burglaries and auto thefts, possibly due to the mandatory evacuation order issued before the storm made landfall during which people who did not evacuate robbed those who did. 

Another study, also published in 2011, found no uptick in sexual violence toward female students at the University of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. However, research on the September 2017 earthquakes that rattled Mexico found increases in both assaults and vandalism after the disasters.

Research also suggests that different types of disasters tend to affect crime differently, and that timing matters. Some disasters seem to reduce crime: Winter storms, for instance, tend to be followed by lower crime rates, one 2025 national study found. However, other disasters, such as severe thunderstorms, seem to increase crime. And after disasters that happen suddenly and pass quickly—like tornadoes and hail storms—crime rates temporarily increase following the event, but then decrease as time goes on.

Similarly, researchers who investigated the effects of Hurricane Irma found a temporary spike in burglaries, followed by a sharp decline, after the storm made landfall in the U.S. Virgin Islands in September 2017. They suspect the perpetrators were just trying to survive in the immediate aftermath of the disaster because the federal response was delayed. But once humanitarian aid began to arrive, they no longer needed to steal. That same study also found evidence of “strong community solidarity” after the hurricane, the researchers wrote.

These mixed and often nuanced findings put policymakers and emergency planners in a tricky position. But understanding the link between crime and natural disasters—and responding accordingly—has never been more important: As the climate changes, experts say extreme weather events are occurring more frequently and becoming more intense. 

Against this backdrop, community leaders must think proactively and strategically about how best to allocate their limited resources in the aftermath of a disaster—everything from where to ramp up police patrols, how to staff domestic violence hotlines and which public services require immediate reinforcement. These choices demand a careful balance between maintaining public safety and preserving community trust, Wenninger says. “When leaders align their response with how people actually behave, communities recover faster and come out more trusting of their institutions.”